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02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Try as they may, the Boston Bruins haven't been able to solve the Carolina Hurricanes this season. They'll get one more chance tonight as the two teams clash in Boston.
The Bruins and Hurricanes sit at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference. Boston leads the Northeast Division by six points over Ottawa and trails the New York Rangers by three points for the top seed in the conference.
Carolina, meanwhile, sits last out of the 15 teams in the East with just 45 points, but it has had Boston's number all season long. The Hurricanes bested the Bruins twice during Boston's slow start in October, then came away with a 4-2 home win on Jan. 14 that was just the Bruins' third in its past nine trips to Carolina.
Jay Harrison and Eric Staal scored 28 seconds apart late in regulation during the Hurricanes' three-goal third versus the Bruins, while Cam Ward came up with 33 saves.
Carolina will hope to feed off that momentum this evening as it faces Boston for the final time this regular season looking to avoid a fourth straight road loss. The Hurricanes had a three-game winning streak at home end on Tuesday with a 5-2 setback to the Islanders.
Brandon Sutter and Tim Brent erased a two-goal deficit with goals in the third period, but New York's John Tavares scored the game-winner at 7:36 of the frame before the Islanders added a pair of empty-net goals. Ward ended with 21 saves and it was his giveaway on a dump-in that led to Tavares' goal.
"We didn't get off to the start we wanted, but we were still in the game," Hurricanes head coach Kirk Muller said. "We had a tough second period, but came out hard in the third."
Carolina will play five of its next seven games on the road and is just 5-13-6 as the guest this season, including 0-1-2 in its past three.
Boston won 21 of its next 24 after a 3-7-0 mark in October, but has begun to cool down a bit. The Bruins are 8-5-1 in their past 14 games since and have alternated wins and losses in their last nine games. However, they are coming off Tuesday's 4-3 win over the visiting Senators.
Boston found itself down 3-1 late in the second before Milan Lucic scored with 44.6 seconds left in the frame. Brad Marchand then scored to tie the game early in the third and defenseman Dennis Seidenberg netted the game-winner near the midway point with his third goal of the season and first since Dec. 28.
"No doubt that goal from Lucic late in the second period certainly made our task a lot easier in the third period," said Bruins head coach Claude Julien.
Zdeno Chara, fresh off serving as a captain in Sunday's All-Star Game, scored his first goal in 17 games, while Tim Thomas made 30 saves in the opener of a three-game homestand.
"It's always nice to get back on a winning note," Thomas said. "Hopefully the good feeling from the win will carry over."
Boston, which is 7-1-1 in its past nine at home, is eligible to have Andrew Ference back in the lineup this evening after he wrapped up a three-game suspension on Tuesday. The defenseman was given the ban for a hit versus the Rangers on Jan. 21.
<< Blazers visit reeling Kings
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Sacramento Kings will attempt to halt a five-
game losing streak when they entertain a Portland Trail Blazers club trying to
figure out how to get it done away from Rip City.
The Kings were competitive in their
<< Sharks, Stars renew hostilities in San Jose
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks turned in an impressive performance in
their first game following the All-Star break and the Pacific Division leaders
will aim for a third straight win tonight when they host the rival Dallas
Stars at HP P
<< Blackhawks try to stop slide in Edmonton
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The return of two of Chicago's top forwards wasn't enough
to halt the club's losing streak last time out and the Blackhawks will try to
avoid matching their longest skid of the season tonight when they visit the
Edmonton Oile
<< Avs host Wild in Northwest Division battle
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key battle in the Western Conference playoff race is on
tap tonight in Denver, as the sliding Colorado Avalanche host the Minnesota
Wild at the Pepsi Center.
Despite posting just four wins in their last 20 games (4-12-4)
Jazz and Warriors meet in the Bay Area >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golden State hopes to wrap up a six-game homestand in
winning fashion tonight when it plays host to a Utah Jazz team aiming to
bounce back from a tough loss.
After losing the first two games of their current residency, the
Bulls resume long trek in MSG against Knicks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have been struggling with consistency
lately and look to gain a measure of balance tonight in a showdown with the
New York Knicks from Madison Square Garden.
The Bulls, who are in the midst of a nine-game
Devils take on Habs in Jersey >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Devils opened up their second half by picking up a big
two points over one of the top teams in the conference. The Canadiens,
meanwhile, failed to build off their win against the top team in the NHL right
before the All-S
Red-hot Preds visit Flyers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Nashville Predators should feel pretty good
about their matchup tonight with the Philadelphia Flyers, especially if the
game goes into a shootout.
The Predators aim to win six straight for the first time this
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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