D-Backs go for second straight win over ailing Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

08/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Playing without Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, the Milwaukee Brewers were unable to extend their winning streak over the Diamondbacks. As Arizona starter Barry Enright builds on his case to be part of his club's 2011 rotation, he wouldn't mind seeing the All-Stars rest another day.

Enright aims for a third straight winning decision this evening in the continuation of a four-game series with Milwaukee at Miller Park.

A 2007 second-round pick out of Pepperdine, Enright joined Arizona's rotation on June 30 and is 3-2 with a 2.81 earned run average. The 24-year-old is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts, though, and is coming off Thursday's victory over Washington in which he allowed two solo homers over six innings of an 8-4 triumph.

The right-handed Enright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two road starts this year, and the rookie faces Milwaukee for the first time in his career tonight.

He'll try to pitch Arizona to a second win in a row over Milwaukee after the Brewers saw the Diamondbacks rally for a 7-4 extra-inning victory in last night's opener to halt the team's seven-game winning streak over the D-Backs. Arizona, which was outscored 26-6 in getting swept in three games at home by the Brewers in May, picked up its first victory over Milwaukee since May 2 of last season.

Gerardo Parra scored Mark Reynolds with a ground out in the ninth inning off Milwaukee closer John Axford, then plated three runs off former closer Trevor Hoffman in the 10th frame. Stephen Drew, who has reached base safely in 16 consecutive games, plated two runs with a single before pinch-hitter Ryan Church added a run-scoring single to right.

"We hung in there after things weren't going our way early," Arizona manager Kirk Gibson said. "We just hope we didn't self-destruct then and we were clutch at the end. We got the job done when we needed to. Our bullpen was great."

Chris Young added a home run to give him his second career 20-homer, 20-stolen base season for Arizona, which has won four of five overall.

Prince Fielder drove in a run in the first inning for his sixth RBI in his last four games for the Brewers, who had a three-game winning streak halted.

"We had some opportunities early in the game," Brewers manager Ken Macha said. "We left six men on base in the first three innings,"

Fielder was also one of three Milwaukee players hit by Arizona starter Ian Kennedy. Both benches were warned after Milwaukee starter Chris Narveson threw behind Rusty Ryal in the fourth inning.

With Braun (wrist) and Hart (back) both ailing and the Brewers having traded Jim Edmonds to Cincinnati earlier in the day, Macha had just one healthy player on his bench in backup catcher George Kottaras. Shortstop Alcides Escobar started in right field and Hart was able to pinch hit late in the game. He is questionable for tonight, as is Braun.

Manny Parra would love to have the duo in the lineup tonight, seeing as he is 0-4 over his last five outings with an 8.56 ERA. The Milwaukee starter has allowed at least four runs in four of those games, including Wednesday's outing versus the Cubs in which he was charged with six runs on six hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings of a loss. He also struck out eight.

The 27-year-old southpaw, who hasn't won since July 3, is 3-9 with a 5.67 ERA this year, but 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA in four career meetings with the Diamondbacks. The first three were starts until he threw two scoreless innings of relief on May 8.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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