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09/06/2010 -
STILLWATER, Okla. (AP) -Oklahoma State uber-booster Boone Pickens spoke for most fans of the Cowboys before their season opener Saturday night against Washington State.
``I'm anxious to see what we've got in the way of an offense,'' Pickens said, noting the offseason hiring of Dana Holgorsen as the Cowboys' new coordinator and play-caller.
Pickens undoubtedly came away satisfied as Oklahoma State rolled up 544 yards in a 65-17 rout of the Cougars. But even after Oklahoma State didn't commit a turnover, had only four penalties and posted its highest-scoring season opener since 1916, Holgorsen said the Cowboys remain far from a finished product.
``We've just got to get better at operating the offense,'' Holgorsen said. ``Whatever they give us, we've got to be able to take it.''
Holgorsen came to Oklahoma State with quite the reputation. He helped Mike Leach construct Texas Tech's frenetic offense before spending the last two years at Houston, where he turned that program into an offensive force. But with four new starters on Oklahoma State's offensive line, a 26-year-old quarterback who hadn't started a football game in nine years, and a mostly inexperienced receiving corps, he wondered how quickly the Cowboys could master his intricate offense.
Early on, quarterback Brandon Weeden looked a bit shaky, acknowledging he had ``jitters.'' Then tailback Kendall Hunter took over. Hunter, a third-team All-America selection in 2008, was severely limited last season by an ankle injury. But he looked like his former self against Washington State, carrying 21 times for 257 yards - the 12th-best single-game total in school history - and four touchdowns.
``When you average 11 yards a carry, you probably ought to give it to him,'' Holgorsen said.
Hunter left the game after the Cowboys' first series of the second half or he could have threatened Barry Sanders' school record of 332 yards, set against Texas Tech during his Heisman Trophy season in 1988.
``I am trying to protect (Sanders) a little bit,'' quipped Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, who played with Sanders that season. ``We'll see if he'll buy a club-level suite if we protect his record.''
Joking aside, Weeden said that Hunter's success running the ball keyed the Cowboys' success in the passing game ``and made things a little easier for me.'' Weeden, a former New York Yankees minor league baseball player, completed 22 of 30 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns, all to Justin Blackmon, before giving way to freshmen backups Clint Chelf and Johnny Deaton.
``We're going to do whatever,'' Weeden said. ``I'll throw it five times a game or I'll throw it 50 times a game. It doesn't matter to me as long as we come away with a win.''
Except for Blackmon, who had eight catches for 125 yards, no other receiver stood out for the Cowboys. Josh Cooper had five catches, but for only 31 yards. Bo Bowling had three catches for 30 yards. Seven other players had at least one catch for Oklahoma State, but Holgorsen didn't sound pleased.
``We've got a long ways to go on offense,'' he said. ``I thought Brandon managed the game well. I thought we took care of the ball well. Obviously, Kendall, they had a hard time tackling him, and then we had at least one deep threat in Blackmon. I'm happy with those three guys, but ... we are still looking for about another six guys to step up and become real players.''
The Cowboys did have an offensive twist not expected with Holgorsen - on a handful of plays, they used a full-house backfield, with three running backs joining Weeden behind the line. Holgorsen smiled when asked about that. He said he and another assistant hatched the scheme this summer during a staff outing.
``It gives you a different way to run the football and use a play-action pass,'' Gundy said Sunday. ``I think it's taking advantage of the personnel we have and using it to the best of our ability.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Jets, Revis agree to deal
Florham Park, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets and Darrelle Revis
have agreed to a deal, ending the cornerback's holdout.
The team made the announcement early Monday morning, according to multiple
media outlets, but did not disclose t
<< Stewart wins at Atlanta and clinches spot in Chase
Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart snapped a 31-race winless streak
in the Sprint Cup Series by taking Sunday's Emory Healthcare 500 at Atlanta
Motor Speedway.
Stewart put on a dominating performance by leading 176 of 325 lap
<< Giants blank Dodgers to inch closer in division
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Uribe hit a key two-run homer for the
second straight game and Jonathan Sanchez pitched seven strong innings, as the
Giants took a 3-0 win over the Dodgers in the rubber match of a three-game
series.
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Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geovanni scored a goal and assisted on another
to propel the San Jose Earthquakes to a 2-1 win over the Houston Dynamo at
Robertson Stadium on Sunday.
The Brazilian was making his first Major League So
Proud powers get early test on rebuilding efforts >>
Michigan-Notre Dame seems so last century now.The game burnished reputations, showcased a handful of top NFL draft picks and often signaled whether either Midwestern power was likely to land a spot in the national championship picture. But the meeti
Leinart finds new home with Texans >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Texans have agreed to a one-year
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The Houston Chronicle cited Leinart's agent, Tom Condon, as confirming the
move, which comes
The biggest threat to the U.S. Ryder Cup team >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While I was busy searching for the best line to describe
Miguel Angel Jimenez, someone I don't know beat me to it.
In the Internet age, it isn't hard to believe how it happened.
Sports Illustrated writer Alan Shipnuck po
Phils eye first place in doubleheader with Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even when Roy Oswalt is off his game, he is still pretty
darn good. The Philadelphia Phillies pitcher might get a chance tonight to put
his team back into sole possession of first place in the National League East.
Set to
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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